Command center · books as of 2026-10-19

Manila—:—:—
IN TRADE

Daily research

Thursday, Oct 15, 2026

Thu ~21:30 EOD Manila. Hot PPI + retail sales printed 20:30 after hot CPI; crypto red all day (BTC ~$80.0k, ETH ~$2,336 below mental $2378). US Thu cash opening red (QQQ ~$717.7, TSM ~-4.5%). HOLD both books / NO TRADE; ETH flatten-or-hold open with jayr. No fills, no PLAN.

IN TRADE
2026-09-072026-09-082026-09-092026-09-102026-09-112026-09-142026-09-152026-09-162026-09-182026-09-212026-09-222026-09-232026-09-242026-09-252026-09-262026-09-272026-09-282026-09-292026-09-302026-10-012026-10-022026-10-032026-10-042026-10-052026-10-062026-10-072026-10-092026-10-122026-10-132026-10-142026-10-152026-10-162026-10-19

01 Scout

Thu EOD. Hot PPI/retail on top of hot CPI; risk-off tape. ETH under mental inv. HOLD / no new size before Mon Oct 19.
  • Overnight ~02:15: ETH Coinbase $2,426.49 (turned red, ~2.0% above mental); Gotrade live Wed MSFT $533.82 / GOOGL $347.63. Beige Book ~02:00 printed - noise, no change.
  • Morning ~07:00: ETH ~$2,417 (~1.6% above mental); Wed close MSFT $533.69 / GOOGL $347.64.
  • Midday ~12:20: ETH $2,367.98 BROKE mental inv $2378.37 (24h low $2,313.07); flatten-or-hold flagged to jayr, no order.
  • 14:55 level: ETH $2,353.64 still below mental; combined ~+$1.44.
  • 21:00 level post-PPI: PPI 1.3%/6.3% vs 0.6%/5.3%; core PPI 0.7% vs 0.3%; retail 0.8% vs 0.3%; ex-auto 0.9% vs 0.6% - all hot. ETH $2,350.07.
  • EOD ~21:30 Coinbase 24h: BTC $80,041.97 (-2.7%, low $80,000) / ETH $2,336.20 (-4.6%, low $2,313.07) / SOL $101.16 (-3.5%) / XRP $1.2930 (-4.1%) / BNB $716.04 (-2.7%) / LINK $11.842 (-5.7%, at low) / SUI $0.9675 (-5.2%).
  • Yahoo v8 Wed close: SPY $769.60 / QQQ $728.95 / MSFT $533.69 (-1.8%) / GOOGL $347.64 (-1.7%). Thu cash open ~21:32: SPY ~$765.84 / QQQ ~$717.75 / MSFT ~$532.46 / GOOGL ~$340.85 / NVDA ~$213.72 / TSM ~$410.56 (-4.5% vs Wed $430.00 after TSMC Q3).
  • Books on Wed close: Gotrade ~+$2.52; ETH ~-$1.28; combined ~+$1.24 (~₱78 at USDPHP 63.02). If Thu open holds, Gotrade ~+$1.94.
  • Coins cash ₱0.33 < ₱800 floor; Gotrade cash $0 / book full. Naked ETH blocks new Coins. BTC ~2.6% above old $78-78.8k wait (expired).

Coinbase exchange 24h stats ~21:32 Manila Oct 15 (all 7 crypto) · Yahoo v8 chart ~21:32 Manila (US Wed close + Thu cash open, PHP=X) · Trading Ops overnight/morning/midday/14:55/21:00 watches Oct 15 · Weekly review 2026-10-12 (rails + catalyst dates); PPI/retail print notes from 21:00 level watch

02 Analyst

Map, not a ticket

EOD HOLD post hot PPI + retail on top of hot CPI - inflation impulse broadening, risk-off across crypto and US tech. ETH lost mental $2378.37 at midday and closed the Manila day ~$2,336 (~1.8% below); naked position ~-$1.28 is the open decision (jayr waiver, no SM). US: Wed close MSFT/GOOGL still green vs fills; Thu open softer (GOOGL ~$340.85, TSM -4.5% post TSMC Q3). No PLAN; post-binary HOLD to Mon Oct 19, A+ only.

ETHwatch

Entry $2451.93 / EOD mark ~$2,336.20 (Coinbase ~21:32 Manila; -4.6% 24h, low $2,313.07) / broker net qty 0.01103342. Naked (jayr waiver). BELOW mental inv $2378.37 by ~1.8% since ~12:20. ~-$1.28 (~₱80). Flatten-or-hold with jayr; no order.

Invalidation: Mental $2378.37 - BROKEN (decision pending jayr)

BTCwatch

Primary map - Coinbase $80,041.97 (~21:32 Manila; -2.7% 24h, low $80,000). ~2.6% above expired $78-78.8k wait; no new armed wait into post-PPI HOLD.

Invalidation: No new PLAN without desk greenlight

XRPwatch

Primary map - Coinbase $1.2930 (~21:32 Manila; -4.1% 24h). Below old $1.33-1.36 wait (expired Sep 11). No new armed wait.

Invalidation: No new PLAN without desk greenlight

MSFTwatch

LT hold / Wed close $533.69 (-1.8% vs Tue $543.45) vs fill $495.57 (~+$1.53). Thu open ~$532.46. TSM -4.5% on TSMC Q3 - AI read-through soft. Not a PLAN.

GOOGLwatch

LT hold / Wed close $347.64 (-1.7% vs Tue $353.78) vs fill $335.20 (~+$0.99). Thu open ~$340.85 (~+$0.45 if held). No add; cash $0.

Thu checks: ~02:15 overnight, ~07:00 morning, ~12:20 midday (ETH broke mental), 14:55 + ~21:00 post-PPI level - all HOLD / NO TRADE, research marks, no broker. EOD ~21:32: Coinbase 24h stats all 7 crypto, Yahoo v8 US Wed close + Thu open, USDPHP 63.02. Books ~+$1.24 combined. No broker touched (nothing queued; research marks, no order pending).

03 Risk

Do not add. Coins PHP cash ₱0.33; open ETH is risk, not dry powder. Gotrade cash $0. Sizes unchanged: Coins ₱800–1,200 (₱1,500 A+), Gotrade $15–25.

Rails: CPI + PPI/retail both hot and done; post-binary HOLD 1-2 US sessions - no new size before Mon Oct 19, A+ only. Gotrade IN_TRADE (cash $0 / book full; MSFT/GOOGL LT holds). ETH naked BELOW mental inv $2378.37 (~$25.78 notional, 0.01103342 ETH) - flatten-or-hold is jayr's call per waiver; no order without his explicit approval. New Coins blocked while naked. Stance IN_TRADE, not ARMED - no PLAN.

Fee-skip: Skip if fees >= ~1/3 edge - unchanged.

  • Post CPI + PPI: HOLD 1-2 US sessions; no new size before Mon Oct 19, A+ only
  • ETH below mental $2378.37 - flatten-or-hold decision with jayr; no auto-order
  • No new Coins entries while naked
  • No new Gotrade without cash (cash $0)
  • No new Gotrade single-name into FOMC Oct 27-28
  • Kill switch: 1 loser or -₱400 day (Coins) still on

04 Desk

Thu EOD HOLD / NO TRADE post hot PPI + retail. Both books held; nothing queued. ETH under mental inv - flatten-or-hold open with jayr, no order. Combined open ~+$1.24 (~₱78) on research marks. No PLAN.
  • →HOLD open books only - no new orders
  • →ETH flatten-or-hold: awaiting jayr's explicit call (no auto-order)
  • →No broker browser (nothing queued; research marks, no order pending)
  • →~21:30 EOD Vision publish (ingest + publish one step)
  • →Next Ops: Fri overnight 02:00 / morning 07:00

Next open
Fri Oct 16 US session (post-PPI HOLD); no new size before Mon Oct 19, A+ only; FOMC Oct 27-28.