Daily research
Thursday, Oct 1, 2026
Thu 23:00 Manila CLOSE / HOLD. Crypto faded, US soft mid-session, ISM 54.5 (prices hot). NFP rail. No fills.
01 Scout
- Crypto (Yahoo v8 ~23:00 Manila Oct 1, vs 17:47): BTC $84,038.05 flat / ETH $2,688.22 -0.9% / SOL $117.33 -1.6% / XRP $1.4822 -1.6% / BNB $766.51 -0.5% / LINK $14.307 -1.0% / SUI (Binance) $1.1354 -3.5%.
- Afternoon fade retraces the midday firmness — drift, not structure. Old waits (BTC $78-78.8k, XRP $1.33-1.36) expired Sep 11; no new armed wait. Satellites map-only.
- US mid-session (~11:01 ET): SPY $760.17 -0.1% / QQQ $738.23 -0.2% / VOO $698.69 -0.1% / IWM $276.36 -0.3% / AAPL $330.06 -0.9% / MSFT $514.24 +0.3% / NVDA $228.93 +0.2% / GOOGL $340.42 -1.1% / AMZN $246.63 -1.0% / META $725.18 flat / TSLA $358.71 +1.1%. Soft tape on hot ISM prices.
- ISM Sep mfg PMI 54.5 (Aug 54.6, consensus ~55) printed 22:00 Manila — 9th month of expansion, but Prices Index jumped to 77.9. Not dovish into NFP.
- Gotrade book last Ultra-verified ~17:47: equity $48.71, cash $0 — MSFT MV $20.57 / GOOGL MV $28.14. Research mid-session implies MSFT ~+$0.75 / GOOGL ~+$0.42 vs fills — book UNVERIFIED at these prints, carry broker marks.
- Coins.ph Spot ~16:05: total ₱1,885.03 — ETH 0.01103342, DOGE 3.057855 + dust, PHP ₱0.33. Research ETH $2,688 implies ~+$2.61 (~₱164). Stance HOLD / NO TRADE NFP-week. No new orders.
- Next: NFP Fri Oct 2 20:30 Manila. NFP rail locked: no new Gotrade single-name; Coins new only if SM restored + A+.
- Coins cash ₱0.33 < ₱800 floor anyway; naked ETH blocks new Coins.
Yahoo chart v8 ~23:00 Manila Oct 1 (US mid-session ~11:01 ET) · Binance SUIUSDT 24hr ~23:00 Manila Oct 1 · Gotrade Ultra broker UI ~17:47 Manila Oct 1 (book carry) · Coins.ph Spot ~16:05 Manila Oct 1 (book carry) · ISM Sep mfg PMI via ForexFactory/Kitco Oct 1
02 Analyst
HOLD open books into NFP Fri Oct 2. ETH still naked (jayr waiver). Gotrade LT holds carried — broker 17:47 MSFT $512.51 / GOOGL $352.22, cash $0, equity $48.71. Research mid-session soft except MSFT/TSLA. Prefer NO TRADE on new entries.
Entry $2451.93 / broker mark $2698.02 (carry 16:05) / Yahoo $2688.22 23:00 / qty 0.01103342. Still naked (jayr waiver). Mental inv $2378.37 only.
Invalidation: Mental $2378.37 only
Primary map - $84,038.05 (flat vs 17:47). Old $78-78.8k wait expired Sep 11. Drift, not structure. No new armed wait this packet.
Invalidation: No new PLAN without desk greenlight
Primary map - $1.4822 (-1.6% vs 17:47). Old $1.33-1.36 wait expired Sep 11. Noise into NFP week. No new armed wait this packet.
Invalidation: No new PLAN without desk greenlight
LT hold / broker $512.51 carry (MV $20.57) vs fill $495.57. Yahoo mid-session $514.24 (+0.3%) research-only. Not a tactical exit PLAN.
LT hold / broker $352.22 carry (MV $28.14) vs fill $335.2. Yahoo mid-session $340.42 (-1.1%) research-only. Not a REDUCE PLAN.
Desk CLOSE tick 2026-10-01 23:00 Manila. Yahoo v8 mid-session + Binance SUI. ISM Sep mfg 54.5 done (prices 77.9 hot). Books carried at last broker-verified marks (Ultra 17:47 / Spot 16:05). No new orders.
03 Risk
Rails: HOLD. Gotrade IN_TRADE carried (cash $0 / equity $48.71 broker 17:47 / book full). NFP rail blocks new Gotrade single-name. New Coins blocked while naked (NFP-week also needs SM+A+). No A+ permission.
Fee-skip: Skip if fees ≥ ~⅓ edge — unchanged.
- No new PLAN without A+ / jayr ask
- No new Coins entries while naked
- NFP / first-Friday window: no new Gotrade single-name size
- Gotrade book full — prefer NO TRADE on new entries
- Kill switch: 1 loser or −₱400 day (Coins) still on
04 Desk
- →Publish 23:00 Manila CLOSE tick on Vision
- →Prefer NO TRADE into NFP Fri Oct 2
- →No new orders — HOLD open books only
Next open
NFP Fri Oct 2 20:30 Manila — reassess only on jayr ask / clean A+ with SM restored on Coins; NFP rail through Fri.