Daily research
Friday, Sep 11, 2026
Coins ETH naked long into CPI — exits cancelled. No new Coins entries.
01 Scout
- Coinbase 15:01 Manila: BTC-USD last $77,262 (spot $77,260.445; stats open $78,079.51 / H $78,199.74 / L $76,440). Binance BTCUSDT $77,291.60 (−1.374%, H $78,368.01 / L $76,464). Kraken TLS reset — unused. Second source confirms below expired wait.
- Coinbase XRP-USD last $1.3537 (spot $1.3537; stats open $1.3824 / H $1.3843 / L $1.329). Binance XRPUSDT $1.3541 (−2.435%, H $1.3879 / L $1.3294).
- Coinbase ETH-USD last $2,465.72 (spot $2,465.695; stats open $2,472.20 / H $2,477.13 / L $2,404.26) · SOL-USD $99.78 (H $101.50 / L $98.38) · 15:01 Manila
- Coinbase BNB-USD $714.79 · Binance BNBUSDT $715.16 (−0.785%, H $720.82 / L $703.62) — below soft scout $728–737
- Coinbase LINK-USD $11.525 (H $11.879 / L $11.392) · Binance LINKUSDT $11.529 (−2.709%) — below soft scout $12.50–12.65
- Coinbase SUI-USD $0.7375 · Binance SUIUSDT $0.7377 (−4.331%, H $0.7711 / L $0.7237) · 15:01 Manila — NONE into CPI.
- BTC vs expired wait $78,000–78,800: BELOW. vs post-only $74.8–75.8k: ABOVE (not in band). Coinbase last $77,262. 11:00 was ~$76.82k. Session L Coinbase $76,440 / Binance $76,464 still through inv ~$77,200. Wick/reclaim/sit ≠ fill. Not a buy-the-dip.
- XRP vs wait $1.33–1.36: IN ZONE at $1.3537. Session L Coinbase $1.329 / Binance $1.3294 tagged floor. Sit ≠ clean hold. Do not chase into CPI.
- ETH live 0.01105 @ $2,451.93. Coinbase $2,465.72 still above mental inv $2,378. SM/TP NOT resting. Naked into CPI — observation only, no new Coins clip.
- PPI Thu 20:30 Manila DONE. CPI Fri 11 20:30 Manila is TODAY (~5.5h). FOMC Sep 15–16. London/EU ≠ NYSE. 15:00 Manila is not US cash open.
- Gotrade (~$46.89 parked, MSFT+GOOGL still queued): no mark/ticket this tick — crypto only. CPI kill still on.
- Coins cash ₱147.49 < ₱800 — floor RED for new entries even if stance were WATCH.
Coinbase Exchange products stats+ticker BTC-USD ETH-USD SOL-USD XRP-USD LINK-USD BNB-USD SUI-USD + v2 spot BTC/ETH/XRP 2026-09-11 15:01 Asia/Manila (~03:01 ET Fri 11) · Binance 24hr ticker BTCUSDT ETHUSDT SOLUSDT XRPUSDT BNBUSDT LINKUSDT SUIUSDT 15:01 Manila · Kraken public Ticker — connection reset, unused this tick · BLS CPI Home: Aug CPI scheduled Fri 2026-09-11 08:30 ET (20:30 Manila) — TODAY ~5.5h · data/desk.json asOf 2026-09-11 IN_TRADE naked ETH 0.01105 @ $2451.93; waits from journal 2026-09-11 (not invented); books ₱147.49 + ETH / $46.89
02 Analyst
BTC $76.8k is still below the expired $78–78.8k wait and not in the post-only $74.8–75.8k band, so a spot clip into CPI is not 2R after fees — and Coins cash is below floor while ETH sits naked.
Old wait $78.0–78.8k EXPIRED. Post-only $74.8–75.8k. 11:00 Coinbase spot $76,819.17 / last $76,813.67 BELOW old wait, ABOVE post wait. Session L Coinbase $76,440 / Binance $76,464. Zones not revised by cron.
Invalidation: Market-buy into CPI, or invent a new wait after the $77,200 break. Wick through inv ≠ fill.
Primary wait $1.33–1.36; 11:00 Coinbase $1.3423 IN ZONE. Session L Coinbase $1.329 / Binance $1.3294 tagged floor. Sit ≠ hold.
Invalidation: Forcing a scalp at $1.34 into CPI, or a resting bid into the print.
LIVE override 0.01105 @ $2451.93. 11:00 Coinbase spot $2,446.10 / last $2,445.86 (session L $2,404.26 still above mental inv). Map only.
Invalidation: Mental $2378 only — SM/TP NOT resting. New Coins entry while naked.
Soft scout $728–737. 11:00 Coinbase $710.94 / Binance $711.23 still below — not a Coins PLAN.
Soft scout $12.50–12.65. 11:00 Coinbase $11.4835 / last $11.477 still below — not a Coins PLAN.
NONE into CPI. 11:00 Coinbase $0.73495 / Binance $0.7350.
Benchmark only. Gotrade skip this tick (US cash closed). No $15–$25 clip into CPI.
11:00 Manila. Conviction at spot 2/10. Zones not revised. Coins cash ₱147.49 < ₱800 (RED for new clips). Gotrade $46.89 ≥ $15 but skip — US cash closed + CPI kill. Permission is stance/Risk: IN_TRADE is the naked ETH override only — no new Coins entries while unhedged. From BTC $76,819 −3% (~$74,515) is into/through the post-only band; +6% (~$81,428) is a chase into CPI. Not 2R after fees. First new Coins clip remains BTC or XRP after the event cluster if structure is clean with Risk PASS. Breakdown ≠ buy. Chase invalidation: market-buy BTC/XRP here into CPI, or add while ETH is naked. ETH-CPI-OVERRIDE still live for Vision grading.
03 Risk
Rails: Rails FLAG: naked ETH into CPI — post-fill SM rule breached (exits cancelled). Mental $2378 ≠ resting stop. Prefer restore Sell→Stop-Market @ $2378.37 ASAP. No new Coins entries while naked.
Fee-skip: Coins: skip if fees >0.8% notional or clip <₱800. Gotrade: prefer $20–25; skip commission+spread >1% of $15.
- PPI Thu 20:30 Manila — PRINTED (done). Not permission.
- CPI Fri 20:30 Manila — TODAY. Kill window.
- FOMC Sep 15–16 until digested
- No wick-as-fill — BTC L through inv is not a buy-the-dip
- No invented wait after a breakdown
- No PLAN into CPI/FOMC
- No second writer racing Grok Bot on the same Coins ticket
- Stance NO_TRADE
- No Gotrade PLAN into CPI (tiny book + event fog)
- Naked into CPI (no resting SM/TP)
- No new Coins entries while unhedged
04 Desk
- →03:00 Manila: both books marked cash-only ₱1723 / $46.89. No broker. No fill.
- →Gotrade this tick: YES (weekday, US cash ~15:00 ET Thu 10) — mark only, no ticket.
- →Coins: limit not resting / not filled / not cancelled (no send). Protective sell: stop not resting. +6% limit not resting.
- →SKIP-20260911-COINS / SKIP-20260911-GOTRADE opened.
- →Watchlist marks refreshed from Yahoo v8 (crypto+US) + Binance SUI 03:00 Manila.
- →CPI today 20:30 Manila. No hunt into the print.
- →BUY? NO on BTC XRP ETH SOL BNB LINK SUI SPY QQQ VOO IWM AAPL MSFT NVDA GOOGL AMZN META TSLA.
- →Journal process vs outcome (03:03 Manila): Process PASS — NO_TRADE kill, BTC Yahoo $77,176 below wait / session L through inv ~$77,200 is not a dip buy, XRP $1.3543 in $1.33–1.36 is a watch not a hold, Risk FAIL skips SKIP-20260911-COINS / SKIP-20260911-GOTRADE, no JR- live ticket, Coins limit not resting / not filled / not cancelled, stop not resting, +6% not resting, Gotrade mark only no send. Outcome FLAT 0 — ₱1723 / $46.89, dayPnl 0, tradeCount 0. Sitting is not a P&L win or loss.
- →Log Gotrade/stocks marks on Vision (Desk amend — jayr called out the miss)
- →Grade Predictions: BTC-WAIT hit→expired; XRP-WAIT hit/in-zone unfilled; BNB/LINK scout miss
- →Seed LT educational Gotrade watchlist on Vision (not armed)
- →Mark Vision Gotrade IN_TRADE/pending for MSFT+GOOGL queue
- →Journal will flip queued→fill at open
- →Coins remain flat into CPI
- →Seed LT educational crypto top 10 on Vision (not armed)
- →Vision: Coins IN_TRADE + ETH-CPI-OVERRIDE
- →After SM or TP fills, cancel the other (no OCO)
- →Keep override ≠ new default in rails memory
- →Vision: exits cancelled — naked ETH on board
- →Restore SM @ $2378.37 only when jayr asks
- →Block new Coins entries while naked
Next open
Manual manage ETH only on jayr ask. Prefer restore SM before CPI print. Cancel/reassess after print; override still ≠ new default.